Joe Biden is main Donald Trump within the nationwide polls for the presidential election.
However that doesn’t assure the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton additionally had a clear lead over Trump within the polls for nearly the whole 2016 marketing campaign. She ended up dropping within the electoral college.
Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor whatever the margin of victory, a handful swing states will in all probability determine the election and be focused closely by campaigners.
Every day, the Guardian’s ballot tracker takes a rolling 14-day common of the polls in eight swing states.
To be able to monitor how the race is creating within the areas that would determine the election, six of the eight states we centered on had been those who flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina had been additionally added because of what they may inform us a few shifting electoral panorama – they may emerge as important new swing states this 12 months.
We should warning that the polls – significantly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We’re not sure, regardless of assurances, that they they’ve corrected this. Moreover, they could be over-counting Democratic help (extra folks might say they may vote for Biden than really prove).
We current the newest polls with these caveats to be borne in thoughts.
The nationwide polls
The newest polling common places Biden forward of Trump nationally.
Whereas the nationwide ballot tracker is a poor indicator of how the essential swing states will sway the election, a powerful polling lead throughout the nation can level to how the race will develop.
Every day, the Guardian’s nationwide ballot tracker takes a 14-day common of nationwide voting intention polls.
On Tuesday 3 November 2020, People will vote for his or her subsequent president, with a alternative between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.
The Guardian ballot tracker tracks the newest polls in eight essential swing states. For Biden to win, he must reclaim a few of these swing states.
The Guardian is collating polls in every of those states, in addition to one other set of nationwide polls. Any polls deemed unreliable – for instance, as a result of they’ve small pattern sizes – are excluded.
Our polling common is a 14-day rolling common: on any day, we collate any polls printed within the final 14 days and take a imply common of their outcomes.
If any firm has performed a number of polls within the final 14 days, we common out their polling outcomes with a view to give them only one entry. After this standardization course of, we take a imply common of those each day entries to current the polling common.