BOZEMAN, Mont. — Voters caught up on this state’s exceedingly shut Senate race might be forgiven for believing Gov. Steve Bullock, the Democratic candidate, was sharing the poll with Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority chief.
An incessant stream of Republican-funded commercials depicts Mr. Bullock, a preferred two-term governor, alongside Mr. Schumer and different main Democrats resembling Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Senator Steve Daines, the Republican incumbent battling for political survival within the conservative-leaning state, commonly tries to tie his opponent to the nationwide celebration, asserting that Mr. Bullock is Mr. Schumer’s “lap canine.”
“Steve Bullock within the Senate places Chuck Schumer in cost,” the most recent advert from the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee mentioned. “Take into consideration that.”
Mr. Bullock doesn’t suppose a lot about it.
“I say it’s all B.S.,” he mentioned in an interview as snow descended upon Montana and shut down marketing campaign appearances already curtailed by the coronavirus, which has hung over the election season and was surging anew within the Mountain West. “Montanans see via among the stuff the place they’re making an attempt to show me into one thing they don’t acknowledge.”
However whereas the governor resented the advert’s implication, in a single respect it was completely true: If Mr. Bullock is elected to the Senate, Mr. Schumer will virtually actually be in cost as the bulk chief.
Right here in Montana and in essential battleground states throughout the nation, Republicans are enjoying protection in a battle for management of the Senate. Dragged by President Trump’s struggles even in conservative states and confronting a phalanx of Democratic opponents who’ve raked in extraordinary sums of money to problem them, Republicans privately acknowledge that their majority is hanging by a thread.
The Montana race, described by strategists for each events as a coin flip, is one in all a handful of contests that may decide management of the Senate and the flexibility of the following president to pursue his agenda, fill a cupboard and win the judicial confirmations abruptly on the forefront of the nation’s political dialogue. Democrats produce other slender paths to Senate energy, however a Bullock victory would basically guarantee it and sign Democratic beneficial properties elsewhere.
Because the race entered its closing days, Republicans led by Mitch McConnell, the bulk chief, have been being pressured to shore up candidates in historically secure places resembling Alaska, Kansas and South Carolina. Democrats consider they’re already on monitor to win Arizona and Colorado and are on the hunt for a half-dozen others beginning with Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. Georgia is abruptly looming as an actual alternative for Democrats, with each of the state’s Republican senators in danger.
Democrats conceded they have been prone to lose in Alabama, the place Senator Doug Jones is operating for re-election after an upset victory in a special election in 2017, and are retaining a detailed watch on Michigan, the place Senator Gary Peters is dealing with John James, a Republican who was receiving a last-minute surge of out of doors cash. However they have been eyeing important pickups elsewhere.
With Republicans holding the Senate majority by a margin of 53 to 47, a internet acquire of three seats would put Democrats in management ought to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. win the presidency; 4 can be required if Mr. Trump is re-elected.
Sustain with Election 2020
Mr. Schumer known as the battle for the Senate a “nail-biter,” however mentioned the outlook for Democrats was far brighter than it was just a few months in the past.
“When you would have advised me in early January that we might have likelihood of successful the Senate, I might have mentioned that may be a actual lengthy shot,” he mentioned in an interview. “Now we’re within the ballpark due to the strategic choice to develop the seats which might be in play.”
Republicans quietly agree that their prospects have dimmed significantly. One Senate Republican chief mentioned privately that the celebration may find yourself with wherever from 47 to 52 seats.
“It’s a 50-50 proposition,” mentioned Mr. McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, who seems to be safely headed towards re-election himself, about his possibilities for remaining majority chief. “Now we have lots of publicity. It’s a canine combat on the market.”
Republicans are battling the brawl from a weakened place, given Mr. Trump’s woes and the record-crushing ranges of cash Democrats have raised for Senate races. Democratic challengers have flipped the same old method on its head and outperformed Republican incumbents with regards to contributions, offering ample sources for TV promoting whilst the normal marketing campaign mannequin has been upended by the pandemic.
Right here in Montana, at the very least an estimated $120 million might be spent, whereas in Maine, greater than $100 million is being poured into the showdown between Senator Susan Collins, a Republican searching for a fifth time period, and Sara Gideon, the Democratic speaker of the State Home. The race in North Carolina, the place Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican, is making an attempt to carry on towards Cal Cunningham, a Democrat, is ready to be the costliest Senate contest ever, with properly over $200 million expended.
Whereas Democratic candidates are nonetheless outspending Republicans in many of the marquee races throughout the closing weeks, the Senate Management Fund, an excellent PAC affiliated with Mr. McConnell, has dumped greater than $82 million into the trouble since early October, serving to shut a cash hole Republicans attribute to the success of on-line small-donor Democratic fund-raising.
“We’re being outspent dramatically, like so many different races across the nation,” mentioned Senator John Cornyn, a three-term Texas Republican who finds himself in an unexpectedly powerful match towards M.J. Hegar, a Democratic navy veteran. “Now we have been a bit late to the dance and I believe we’re going to must study from the best way Democrats elevate cash. It’s now not like going to a dinner and a cocktail celebration.”
The truth that Mr. Cornyn finds himself sweating is testomony to how Democrats have opened a number of potential routes to a Senate majority whereas Republicans have did not put their traditional strongholds out of attain. Democrats have been unable to place away Ms. Collins, whom they noticed as exceptionally susceptible after her vote in 2018 to verify Decide Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Courtroom. However Republicans now fear the voting system in Maine — through which voters’ second-choice candidate is counted if no candidate earns 50 % — may value her on Tuesday.
Democrats have targeted relentlessly on well being care of their campaigns, scorching Republicans for his or her yearslong drive to overturn the Reasonably priced Care Act and its protections for pre-existing situations. The facility of the message has been amplified by the pandemic and public anxiousness about well being prices. Republicans have pushed again with pledges to ensure protection however haven’t produced specifics on how they’d achieve this.
The problem for Democrats is that to win the Senate, they need to prevail in states Mr. Trump carried in 2016 and is prone to carry once more this 12 months resembling Iowa and Montana, although Biden victories in locations like Arizona and North Carolina would make their activity simpler. Republicans had hoped latest revelations that Mr. Cunningham had an extramarital affair would assist rescue Mr. Tillis in North Carolina, however polls counsel it has not occurred and Mr. Tillis stays in hassle.
As Mr. Biden exhibits shocking momentum in Georgia, the place two Republican Senate seats are up for grabs, Republicans have grow to be more and more involved in regards to the outlook for Senator David Perdue, who drew widespread criticism for showing to mock the identify of Senator Kamala Harris, his colleague and the Democratic vice-presidential candidate. Polls present the Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff close to the 50 % threshold wanted to keep away from a runoff on Jan. 5, although the race for Mr. Perdue’s seat may spill into subsequent 12 months together with the combat for the one occupied by Senator Kelly Loeffler, a Republican who was appointed to the Senate final 12 months. Such runoffs make it conceivable that management of the Senate is not going to be determined till January.
With Mr. Trump in actual hazard of shedding, Senate Republicans are elevating the alarm in additional conservative states {that a} Republican Senate is required to take care of a verify on Democrats ought to Mr. Biden win the presidency and Democrats maintain the Home as anticipated. Republicans are pointing to Democratic help for calls to remove the filibuster and add seats to the Supreme Courtroom as proof of what Democrats plan.
“What occurs if they’ve all the ability?” a brand new Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee advert airing towards the Democratic candidate for Senate in Iowa, Theresa Greenfield, asks as ominous background music performs. “They may change the Senate guidelines to advance their liberal agenda.”
In Montana, a state awash in marketing campaign promoting and adverse political assaults, Republicans have sought to painting Mr. Bullock, whose job efficiency rankings have remained robust as he has managed the state response to the pandemic, as a politician who turned to the left throughout a failed presidential main run.
“Steve Bullock is simply too liberal for Montana,” Mr. Daines mentioned in a short interview.
However Mr. Bullock proved in 2016 that he may draw the help of conservatives, narrowly successful re-election whilst Mr. Trump simply carried the state. In consequence, Republicans try to influence voters that sending him to Washington can be extra harmful than placing him answerable for their state.
“They may like him as governor, however in the end he’s enjoying for the unsuitable group and would green-light Democrats’ excessive agenda within the Senate,” mentioned Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for Republicans’ Senate marketing campaign group.
Mr. Bullock scoffs on the characterizations. His marketing campaign advisers consider {that a} closing marketing campaign push targeted on digital promoting focused on the few remaining undecided voters and an intense outreach operation can deliver a victory in a contest that each side consider might be settled by a number of thousand votes at most.
“The identical person who Montanans elected twice governor and is now operating for the Senate goes to be the identical individual once I present up in D.C.,” he mentioned. “I’m not going to drink the water.”
Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting from Washington.
